Jatkoa USA:n budjettivaje / velkaongelmaan

Obaman budjettiehdotus näytti siis alijäämää 1 752 miljardia dollaria. Vaikka luku on giganttinen, näyttäisi vahvasti siltä, että todellisuudessa velkaa joudutaan tekemään vielä enemmän. Budjettiehdotus perustuu hiuksen hienon talouskasvun (!) olettamukselle.

Sitten asiaan. Tässä kirjoituksessa pohdiskellaan samaa asiaa, minkä otin esille muutama päivä sitten; kuka rahoittaa tämän valtavan budjettialijäämän?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/0302.html

Funding can come from only three places:
1) Higher Government taxes
2) More Government borrowing
3) More, freshly printed Federal Reserve notes, if that borrowing is Monetized by the Federal Reserve

Näistä ensimmäinen ei uuden presidentin linjan mukaan tule olemaan ratkaisu. Toisen avulla velka on onnistuttu rahoittamaan Bush II:n valtakaudella. Entäpä nyt?

Does the U.S buyer have the savings? Sad to say, and well-documented by numerous analysts, the U.S. savings rate has been going down, for years. The buy-now-pay-later mentality has put the U.S. in debt up to it ears.

Kotimaasta ei löydy...

In fact, in this decade, foreigners have absorbed nearly 80% of the Government’s Public Debt offerings.

In November, China announced a $585 billion economic stimulus package to be fully invested by the end of 2010.The Chinese government agreed to provide only $170 billion of the funds. How will China raise the other $415 billion for continuous use until the end of 2010? The only reserve China can tap into to finance its stimulus package is its $1.9 trillion foreign exchange reserves, $585 billion of which is in US Treasury securities.

Kiina käyttää pääomat omaan stimulointiin...

Japan is facing enormous headwinds as its quality-focused exports are suffering massive demand destruction as its consumers abroad lose wealth at epic proportions. Japan was a net seller of US Treasuries in 2008 and it is highly unlikely it will switch to being a net buyer anytime soon.

Japani... nope!

As oil prices tank, so will OPEC nations' economies and they too will have no wealth to buy up more American debt.

Öljynviejilläkin vaikeata...

Ja johtopäätös:

With an insolvent public and no foreign demand for Treasuries, the Federal Reserve will monetize debt to finance its continued bailouts and economic stimulus.